Confirmed previous forecast
2.406196
Relative Brier Score
231
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 231 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 65 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 12:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
5%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
95%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 2, 2025 12:48AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 2, 2025 to Mar 2, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 2, 2025 to Mar 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
5%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
95%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2025 08:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Given Russia's confortable position with it's successfull war effort, it is unlikely a ceasefire will take effect soon, given the US and Ukraine's enduring resistance to terms which are key for Russia. They can continue to win the conflict and drag it out until a perceived victory or until its enemies are willing to accept it's terms. Recent war developments only confirm Russia's favorable position in detriment to Ukraine's weakening.
Why might you be wrong?
If an unlikely scenario takes place in which Russia starts to lose the conflict, a ceasefire may take place sooner than expected.