Confirmed previous forecast
0.463456
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 25 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
21%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
39%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
because AI is getting dangerous
Files
Why might you be wrong?
if AI hits a platue in intelligence
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
30%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
40%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
21%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
39%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
seems too unrealistic
Why might you be wrong?
I dont know alot about the topic