Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-5%)
Yes
Updating to reflect passing time
Reasoning for potential ceasing : De facto is to remain and hold on to power at all costs. Health, some form or uprising or coup d'etat. Both possible but seem low probability in the timeframe.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
89%
(+67%)
Yes
11%
(-67%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Successful launch
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Failure of mission
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Currently largest - strong predictions and race for chip purchase continues
Why might you be wrong?
Question about next earnings calls and need for v high growth