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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is a trend to intensify controls related to AI but in general there are no news that show that will change for the beginning of 2026
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Change in trading deals that could lead to changes in controls
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files