NickShaw

About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

1

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 1 1 3
Comments 0 0 1 1 2
Questions Forecasted 0 0 1 1 2
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Badge
NickShaw
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
NickShaw
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
8%
Less than or equal to 9%
7%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
12%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
29%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
44%
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?

Ukraine seems to have held it's own over the last 8 months while Trump has been in power. The existence of Ukraine as a sovereign nation matters more to the EU right now and, therefore, more likely to be seen as an ally.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If there is a streak of populism, then respondents may not want to be involved in any new foreign entanglements.

Files
New Badge
NickShaw
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

It’s only 5 days away and there doesn’t seem to be any tumult.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Maybe someone is currently plotting something and is deep hiding.

Files
New Badge
NickShaw
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
NickShaw
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Navalny's death may make for more bottoms up uprisings.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username