Maintaining forecast for now
Reported purge of top PLA generals, including "..officers with experience focused on Taiwan":
https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-weekly-update-october-24-2025/
0.002448
Relative Brier Score
22
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 23 | 22 | 65 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 24 | 23 | 33 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 29, 2025 03:56AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected PLA action against Taiwan meeting question criteria
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
92%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 23, 2025 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2025 to Mar 23, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 23, 2025 to Mar 23, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Maintaining forecast for now. (Question criteria stipulates invasion etc. of the main island of Taiwan, vs. remote islands:)
https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-weekly-update-september-22-2025/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected PLA action meeting question criteria
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
8%
(-15%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
92%
(+15%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing the 70-74% range forecast further mainly per this info./analysis:
Files
Why might you be wrong?
New data or data revisions unexpectedly move the average OECD employment rate outside of this range
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
23%
(-4%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
77%
(+4%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Update mainly for passage of time. Next OECD unemployment report release listed for Sept. 11th. https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/statistical-releases/2024/01/release-dates-for-oecd-statistics-news-releases.html
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An unexpected, significant change in unemployment during the remainder of 2025
Files
Yes. I have been reading your various updates all along. ..Did not make note of that in my comment
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 24, 2025 07:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 24, 2025 to Feb 24, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 24, 2025 to Feb 24, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An unexpected attack etc. by the PLA that meets question criteria
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Update for passage of time
Why might you be wrong?
As before