Update for passage of time
0.002448
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 2 | 24 | 23 | 66 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 25 | 24 | 34 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
4%
(-4%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
96%
(+4%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 29, 2025 03:56AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Maintaining forecast for now
Reported purge of top PLA generals, including "..officers with experience focused on Taiwan":
https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-weekly-update-october-24-2025/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected PLA action against Taiwan meeting question criteria
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
92%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 23, 2025 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2025 to Mar 23, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 23, 2025 to Mar 23, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Maintaining forecast for now. (Question criteria stipulates invasion etc. of the main island of Taiwan, vs. remote islands:)
https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-weekly-update-september-22-2025/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected PLA action meeting question criteria
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
8%
(-15%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
92%
(+15%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing the 70-74% range forecast further mainly per this info./analysis:
Files
Why might you be wrong?
New data or data revisions unexpectedly move the average OECD employment rate outside of this range
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Background reading:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/11/china/trump-national-security-strategy-china-taiwan-intl-hnk
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/12/13/japan/japan-missile-archipelago/
Why might you be wrong?
Despite PLA exercises, no clear signs found of a possible attack that would meet question criteria.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-japan-voice-concern-over-chinese-military-movements-2025-12-05/