Edging 'yes' forecast upward a bit for now, but mindful of the question's time frame.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 22 | 3 | 69 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 23 | 3 | 37 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(+3%)
Yes
45%
(-3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before. ..Plus not a lot of detailed publicly available information re actual "operational deployment" thus far
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
52%
Yes
48%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Edging this initial forecast barely toward a 'yes' resolution, with available sources asserting that the Army is "..aiming for full operational capability by late 2025/early 2026, following successful flight tests in 2024..", of its "Dark Eagle" LRHW. (https://www.twz.com/land/new-dark-eagle-hypersonic-weapon-details-emerge, https://euro-sd.com/2025/10/articles/armament/46996/us-army-long-range-hypersonic-weapon-programme-status/, https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/u-s-army-mach-5-dark-eagle-hypersonic-missile-can-now-strike-from-2175-miles-away/)
..Adding an opinion that the leadership in the current administration (e.g., Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump) regularly produce "bold", impactful statements, and may likely wish to announce operational deployment (of a U.S. LRHW) as soon as it is possible to do so. There is (also) an overall deterrent factor to such an announcement.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
..Unable to meet question criteria within the specified time period. E.g.: "A field artillery unit has received complete equipment including live missiles, has completed training and certification, and is confirmed available for operational tasking by combatant commanders."
Per sources, fielding of "Dark Eagle" to a first unit was previously expected by 9/30/25. (https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF11991/IF11991.29.pdf)
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 14, 2026 04:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Background reading:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/11/china/trump-national-security-strategy-china-taiwan-intl-hnk
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/12/13/japan/japan-missile-archipelago/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Despite PLA exercises, no clear signs found of a possible attack that would meet question criteria.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
4%
(-4%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
96%
(+4%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Update for passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 29, 2025 03:56AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2025 to Apr 29, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Maintaining forecast for now
Reported purge of top PLA generals, including "..officers with experience focused on Taiwan":
https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-weekly-update-october-24-2025/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected PLA action against Taiwan meeting question criteria
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering 'yes' for now. US Army admits missing end-of-2025 fielding of Dark Eagle, but still claims this should happen "in early 2026".
https://defence-blog.com/u-s-army-misses-deadline-for-dark-eagle-hypersonic-weapon/
https://defence-industry.eu/u-s-army-confirms-further-delay-to-deployment-of-dark-eagle-hypersonic-missile-system-bloomberg/
FWIW: I still guess that the Trump regime is hopeful of announcing successful field deployment ASAP
Why might you be wrong?
Question criteria not met within time frame