I base my assessment on a combination of historical precedent, current conditions, and broader sociopolitical dynamics in Iran
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This forecast expired on Oct 9, 2024 08:06PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
68%
Yes
Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025
32%
No
Sep 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2025
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historical precedence, institutional control, a divided opposition, and the ability to manipulate the election—I estimate a 75-85% probability that Maduro will remain president through January 2025. This estimate balances the high likelihood of his re-election or retention of power with the small chance that an unexpected event (such as internal fractures or an unforeseen international development) could destabilize his rule.