Both nations are currently dealing with budget deficits, slowing economic growth, and a range of financial pressures. Given these circumstances, it’s unlikely that lawmakers will focus on introducing tax breaks or incentives for AI development especially since such measures would reduce government revenue and could raise doubts about their overall effectiveness and fairness.
0.000313
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The U.S. Congress has the constitutional power to regulate artificial intelligence under the Commerce Clause, as well as through its ability to impose taxes. As concerns about the security risks posed by AI continue to grow in the coming years, it’s likely that Congress will move toward creating specific laws or regulations to address these issues.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
In practice, this means Huawei might prefer to “wait and see” rather than take risks on Open RAN too early. With a dominant position and steady revenue growth, especially in its home market where Open RAN adoption is not urgent, Huawei can afford to be cautious. They may only shift once there is undeniable evidence that Open RAN is the future of the industry. Until then, their current strategy works just fine, so they lack strong incentives to overhaul it.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Huawei is not locked into one way of doing things. The company has the resources, technical know-how, and global experience to react if Open RAN becomes a major trend. Even if they are not leading the charge now, history suggests they can catch up fast if the pressure grows similar to how they adapted in other markets when faced with competition or regulation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
93%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Biological weapons sound threatening but are hard to use effectively. They spread unpredictably, can backfire on their users, and offer little tactical control compared to conventional weapons. Modern militaries already have safer, more reliable tools, making bioweapons more risky gamble than advantage.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Accidents in research labs have happened before such as the suspected 1977 Russian flu release, and ongoing debates around COVID-19’s origins. Even if uncertain, these cases show that leaks are possible. Since even a tiny chance of an accident with dangerous pathogens can have huge consequences, lab safety must be taken seriously.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
If the United States decided to sanction companies in the oil and gas sector, energy prices would likely rise sharply. This would cause instability in global markets, frustrate consumers, and place heavy pressure on governments. In countries with already fragile economies, the added strain could lead to political or social unrest.
Why might you be wrong?
The Trump administration could act in unpredictable ways, which means it might suddenly impose new sanctions to gain diplomatic leverage or to show political strength. These actions could even target countries that are normally considered close partners.