The Coalition is struggling with significant logistical challenges. Member states have found it difficult to assemble even 25,000 troops, which is far below the originally planned force of 64,000. At the same time, several key NATO members, including Germany and Italy, remain firmly against committing ground troops. This combination of limited manpower and political resistance makes it difficult for the Coalition to project credible military strength or sustain a large-scale deployment.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sharp escalation by Russia, a major setback on the battlefield, or a deepening humanitarian crisis could push European nations to intervene more directly, even in the absence of a formal peace agreement. This possibility becomes more likely as Russian hybrid attacks on European countries continue to rise, increasing the pressure on European governments to respond decisively to protect their security and regional stability.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The EU has started buying gas from more places like the US, Norway, Algeria, and Qatar. This helps them depend less on Russia and makes their energy supply more secure.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some EU countries still rely on Russian gas because they signed long-term deals that force them to keep buying a certain amount, even if they don’t need it. If they stop, they have to pay big penalties.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The May 10, 2025 ceasefire has proven durable, with no confirmed violations. Diplomatic ties, trade, and civilian flights have all resumed, suggesting a return to normal relations between India and Pakistan.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The main threat to stability comes from militant groups. A terrorist attack, like the one in May 2025, could prompt Indian retaliation. Pakistan’s weak control over extremists in its frontier regions means this risk remains persistent despite the ceasefire.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Trump government took money and staff away from big health groups like NIH and CDC. This leave big safety holes.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Most groups, even other countries, don’t want to make super dangerous bio stuff. If things go out of control, it can hurt them too.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Devices that rely on large language models face several technical problems that are difficult to control. These include hallucinations, where the model gives incorrect or invented information; model drift, where performance changes over time as the system learns from new data; and inconsistent answers that depend on how a question is phrased. These issues come from the way LLMs work at a fundamental level, which makes it challenging to prove that they can perform safely and reliably in medical settings. To regulate them effectively, the FDA and developers may need to create new testing standards and improved ways of limiting or guiding the model’s responses
Why might you be wrong?
During the FDA’s Digital Health Advisory Committee meeting in November 2025, officials made it clear that they expect to authorize some generative AI products in the near future. The meeting materials noted that although no generative AI chatbots have been cleared yet, the FDA expects to see approvals before long. This wording suggests that several applications are already far along in the review process. Mental health support tools, including those developed by well-known companies in the digital therapeutics space, appear to be among the types of products moving toward possible authorization.