The energy sectors of certain countries could become vulnerable to sanctions if political conditions change. For example, if a state-owned subsidiary repeatedly violates international rules such as the Russian oil price cap or sanctions on Iranian crude, and quiet diplomatic pressure fails to correct the behavior, the United States or the European Union might conclude that stronger action is necessary. In such a case, they could impose direct sanctions to send a clear deterrent message, even if it means targeting a company tied to a strategic partner.
0.049704
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Imposing sanctions on state-owned oil and gas companies would come at a very high cost both diplomatically and economically. Such measures could disrupt vital security cooperation, weaken counterterrorism efforts, and destabilize broader regional partnerships. These countries also play an essential role in Middle East diplomacy, particularly in efforts to achieve peace and stability, including negotiations related to Gaza. Sanctions could therefore strain relationships and undermine progress on key regional issues
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Tech companies have a lot of power and influence. Big tech firms and industry leaders often have close connections with the government, so they would probably try to block strict rules or slow down any major regulations.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A big AI accident or security problem could push politicians to act fast. If something goes wrong—like a serious breach or harmful technology there would be strong pressure to create new rules quickly to prevent it from happening again.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
At the same time, the May 2025 crisis showed that both sides can manage tensions. Direct military communication helped prevent escalation and kept the ceasefire stable for months, proving that crisis management mechanisms can work even under severe strain.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
India’s withdrawal from the Indus Water Treaty strikes at Pakistan’s core security, since the treaty covers most of its water supply. Islamabad views interference with river flows as an existential threat, raising the risk of escalation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Making a full fake cell not possible right now. Science not there yet. Putting all tiny parts together and making them work right, too hard to do with what we know
Files
Why might you be wrong?
New tech like AI, faster computers, better tools, and cheaper costs help science move faster now
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Austria’s state-owned company OMV ended its long-term gas supply agreement with Gazprom at the close of 2024. This decision cut Austria’s Russian gas imports by an estimated one point eight to two point seven billion cubic meters each quarter. The reduction played a major part in the sharp drop of roughly four billion cubic meters in EU gas imports during the first quarter of 2025.
Why might you be wrong?
If a ceasefire or peace agreement is reached in Ukraine, European governments may find it easier to justify buying more Russian gas again. A calmer political environment could open the door for renewed energy cooperation, including the possibility of restarting certain pipeline flows or signing new supply agreements as part of wider diplomatic discussions. Any shift would likely depend on how the peace terms are structured and on the political mood within each EU country.