Tsinghua is affiliated and partnered with some of China's top tech firms such as Moonshot, Baichuan, etc. If Tsinghua is working on this technology which will help companies bypass U.S. restrictions then this will surely be a top priority both at the officials level and in the entity level. Xi's current whole country effort to greater "informationization" [智能化] also suggests a greater centralized focus to fill gaps to develop a Chinese domestic semiconductor industry.
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Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
If Xi Jinping/China's leadership changes security goals
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This forecast expired on Nov 28, 2024 07:28PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025
35%
(0%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025
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This forecast expired on Nov 28, 2024 07:28PM
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Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
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This forecast expired on Nov 22, 2024 07:23PM
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Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025
35%
No
Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025
Chinese tech companies have proven their ability to quickly copy and improve upon U.S.-made technology. With the next landmark in AI estimated by some experts as arriving in 2026, it is extremely possible that a Chinese tech organization will reach top 3 on the LLM Leaderboard.
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The proven ability of Chinese companies to evade U.S. technology sanctions