Because I am. Israel has acted recklessly and has thus far been unwilling to engage in rational diplomacy. With exceeding disregard for international law, it is more likely that most states will cease diplomatic relations with Israel and begin sanctioning.
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This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2024 06:44PM
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Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
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Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Qatar may attempt to negotiate with Iran on behalf of negotiating with Israel... but even then, the axis of resistance is not even under Iran's control at this point. Sadly, I will not be wrong... unless the axis of resistance begins nuclear drone strikes with enough force that Israel initiates a ceasefire. In this instance, it would not be a typical nuclear attack. The drones would be comprised of light material that is undetectable, supplied by Russia and SA; and their nuclear capacity would be severely limited. It is clear that Iran does not want to cause mass destruction, and makes efforts to conduct carefully targeted strikes, and also highly unlikely that these strikes would be conducted with approval from Iran
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Why do you think you're right?
The People's Liberation Army is only interested in displays of power and intelligent social disruption. They are prepared for war, and have a stronger naval fleet than the US but preparation is only meant to be a deterrent. China will not engage in direct conflict or blockade by May, but things have potential to escalate early in June.
Why might you be wrong?
If the US increases our provocation of PLA, or interferes with China's economy, or engages in any sort of covert disruption to their infrastructure then Taiwan will pay the price. If the US provokes Taiwan to make explicit statements of its independence, or in any other way escalates tensions than PL A would first initiate a blockade, particularly as US presence increases, including and especially if the US air force base is completed and active before June. This issue is a territorial dispute between the US and China. This would very rapidly result in a war against the US, in which we are hopelessly outnumbered.