Ukraine’s main challenge lies in its shortage of ammunition and munitions, not in the number of launch systems it possesses. Supplying additional launchers without ensuring a steady and adequate flow of ammunition would fail to solve the fundamental problem on the battlefield. What Ukraine needs most is a reliable and sustained supply of munitions to maintain its defensive and offensive operations effectiv
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
43%
Yes
57%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Recent incidents involving Russian drones entering NATO airspace, including in Poland and Denmark, have heightened security concerns across Europe. These repeated violations of national sovereignty are likely to act as strong political drivers for European governments to increase military support for Ukraine. By providing more advanced weapons systems, European states aim to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to deter further Russian aggression and reduce the risk of the conflict spreading beyond Ukrainian territory.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2027
95%
No
Sep 30, 2025 to Mar 30, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Causing real physical damage via cyberattacks is hard. To do it, attackers would need deep, detailed access to the industrial systems that run factories, power plants, or infrastructure and they’d need exact knowledge of how those systems operate.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the war in Ukraine keeps going and NATO steps up support, Russia might try to hit back in ways that aren’t obvious like cyberattacks. Those attacks can be hidden or blamed on someone else, yet still cause real-world damage.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The extremely high cost and technical difficulty make this achievement unlikely to be justified or feasible within the given timeframe, even if theoretically possible.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Advances in AI and computational biology, including tools like AlphaFold for protein structure prediction, are accelerating scientific discovery and could enable the complex synthesis and assembly required for synthetic cells.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Congress has not reached agreement on what AI regulation should look like, and it has struggled to deal with complicated technical issues. The institution has also shown that it moves slowly and often becomes gridlocked, especially on topics that require specialized understanding. At the moment, there are no active bills moving through the process that would qualify as substantial or comprehensive AI regulation, which means meaningful legislative progress is unlikely in the near term.
Why might you be wrong?
The Trump administration is known for shifting direction quickly when major events occur, so its policies could change with little warning. Even though the current approach is strongly against new regulations, a sudden change in political or economic conditions could still lead to unexpected legislative actions. The overall message is that nothing is fully settled because the administration often reacts to events in a fast and dramatic way.