The deployment could take place as part of a broader peace settlement or a negotiated ceasefire, with the goal of acting as a deterrent and providing credible security guarantees on the ground. Recent reports indicate that the United States may contribute indirectly by offering strategic support, such as intelligence sharing and air defense assistance. This type of backing would enhance the coalition’s overall effectiveness while reducing the need for large-scale U.S. troop involvement.
0.000004
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Coalition is struggling to overcome major logistical hurdles. Member states have so far managed to assemble only about 25,000 troops, a figure that falls far short of the proposed 64,000 needed for a meaningful deployment. In addition to these manpower shortages, several key NATO members, including Germany and Italy, have made it clear that they oppose sending ground forces. This combination of limited resources and political resistance makes it difficult for the Coalition to mount a credible or sustained presence in the field.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
They want energy independent, sanctions and politics block big Russian gas. EU plan store gas, use LNG, save from winter, so not need big Russia gas quarter. Also, Russian side maybe not deliver big amount, politics tension, pipelines risky.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
EU still need gas sometimes, winter cold, factories need. Even if try stop Russia gas, some countries got old contracts, must buy little bit or pay penalty. Sometimes pipelines still work, deliveries happen, maybe quarter some big shipment come. Also maybe shortage elsewhere, they no choice, take Russia gas little bit.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Moving toward Open RAN would weaken Huawei’s dominance by lowering barriers for competitors and eroding the advantages of its tightly integrated, vendor-locked model.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As European restrictions tighten, Huawei may face pressure from major customers to adopt Open RAN in order to preserve market access and sustain revenues.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The EU has already made major progress in reducing its dependence on Russian gas by bringing in supplies from other sources. A large share now comes from the United States, with American LNG making up more than half of EU imports, compared with just over forty percent in 2024. This shows that Europe has workable alternatives and is making use of them. At the same time, the United States continues to push European governments to buy even more American LNG, adding political pressure to keep diversification efforts moving.
Why might you be wrong?
If the war in Ukraine ended or if sudden peace talks resulted in an agreement that included Russian gas exports, Europe’s gas import levels could change very quickly. If the conflict ended in a way that the EU viewed as acceptable, or if Russia pulled its forces out of Ukraine, European governments might decide to rebuild parts of the energy relationship. This could allow both sides to benefit economically and could even lead to a return to the higher import levels seen before the war.