RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?	0.057312
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?	0.009337
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC	Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025)	-0.115652
Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025)	0.000981
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	-0.006009
Jan 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 28, 2024 and Jan 28, 2025)	0.000671
Nov 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2024 and Nov 28, 2024)	0.002065
Oct 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 28, 2024 and Oct 28, 2024)	0.014933

Owen-Huang