John

There are already 1,491 cases recorded, with about two weeks of reporting still remaining until September 30. In recent weeks, case counts have ranged from the upper teens to the 30s, and the lowest weekly total this year was 11. Even if we only see the minimum weekly count for the remaining weeks, the final total will still fall within the 1,500–1,649 range. In fact, even if the next two weeks record only half of the lowest week of this year, the total would still surpass 1,500. For this reason, I estimate a 97% probability that the outcome will be in the 1,500–1,649 category, and only a 1% chance of staying below 1,500.

On the other hand, exceeding 1,649 cases would require at least 100 new cases in each of the final two weeks. This has never occurred consecutively this year, and only two weeks have surpassed 100 cases during the peak of the outbreak. This makes the probability of finishing above 1,649 almost zero. Still, I assign a 1% probability each to the 1,500–1,649 and 1,650–1,799 categories to reflect both the possibility of an unexpected severe outbreak and the fact that CDC numbers are subject to revision.

There are only two weeks left in this forecast period, and no major hurricanes have been recorded yet. The probability of experiencing more than one hurricane in the next two weeks is very low. Having four or more hurricanes in such a short period is unprecedented and extremely unlikely, with the possibility rounding down to nearly zero. 

CDC reports 1,431 cases as of Sept 2. There are 4 weekly updates left before Sept 30. In the past month, weekly increases have ranged from 11 to 25 cases, which suggests we could see another 44–100 cases this month, for a final total around 1,475–1,530.

Crossing 1,499 requires about 17 cases per week, just under the middle of the recent range. However, the major West Texas outbreak ended on Aug 18, and since then growth has mainly come from smaller, scattered clusters. That makes it more likely we see weekly adds in the low-to-mid teens, keeping the final number just under 1,499 or only slightly above 1,500.

I assign a slightly higher chance (54%) of staying below 1,499 (due to the end of the West Texas outbreak), but still a strong probability in the 1500–1649 range (44%), since even a single week of 20–25 cases, well within recent experience, could push totals over the 1499 threshold.
I leave small tails above 1,649 to account for reporting changes or an unexpected late outbreak.
I assigned 0% to the ≤1349 bin since the count is already well above this level, and even a major reporting correction wouldn’t reduce totals that far. 

With only 23 days remaining, the base rate for any major U.S. troop withdrawal is under 1%, and there are no official signals pointing toward such a move. The administration is also heavily absorbed with other priorities—China, Ukraine, Venezuela, the Middle East, tariffs, and domestic issues like the Epstein files, leaving the likelihood of an announcement close to zero.