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New Prediction
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Angola
5%
(0%)
Kenya
12%
(0%)
Ethiopia
7%
(0%)
Nigeria
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 8, 2025 02:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
May 8, 2025 to Nov 8, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
May 8, 2025 to Nov 8, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Angola
5%
(0%)
Kenya
12%
(+7%)
Ethiopia
7%
(0%)
Nigeria
Continued internal conflict and structural friction, does not provide a clear and positive way forward. Coupled with the low levels of democratic reform.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 6, 2024 04:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-9%)
Yes
Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
99%
(+9%)
No
Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
There is little benefit that China can gain from military action, which they can not achieve thrugh other political or economic measures.
The potential risk of a drawn out military conflict would significantly undermine the possible marginal benefit of military action.
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Why might you be wrong?
A significantly degraded Chinese domestic situation. Either economic impacting the general population, or an unexpectate crack in the ruling classes.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-22%)
Yes
97%
(+22%)
No
Even in the event of IP concerns, or conflicts, the "closing" or "relocation" of these labs would send to significant a shudder, and message, to specifically China. In the event of concerns a "refocus" oor reduction in activities might be a less visible response.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
The role of this equipment is becoming too important to the unfolding geopolitical shifts and hence would/should be a key startegic priority for the Chinese government.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 6, 2024 03:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
90%
No
Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Beyond a symbolic victory, China will gain little with an outright military intervention than what they can achieve through other diplomatic and/or economic measures.
In addition, the risk involved in a drawn out military conflict will do more harm than the posible benefit of unification.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A rapidly deteriorating domestic situation in China, which requires Chinese Leadership to bolster their national image and possibly unify either a fractured population or party.
Files