Because Wagner/Africa Corps normally drop into countries with a newly authoritarian/military government, typically with coups, that also have endemic and widespread conflict. Niger, Mali, Sudan etc. Togo. If Gnassingbé goes, sure. That explains the 20%
0.040376
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Answer
20%
Togo
25%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Gnassingbé could get booted. There's also an additional uplift for some random chance that another country might undergo a similar change. Ghana, could be one, for example.
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You never know. New US admin could bring some unpredictability.