Recently, China started to believe again that the time is on their side. With the new US president got elected, China will move back to wait-and-see approach. Therefore, China may harass Taiwan but will not have advance its control to the island in the next six month.
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Star Commenter - Dec 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 23, 2025 06:45AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Dec 23, 2024 to Jun 23, 2025
92%
No
Dec 23, 2024 to Jun 23, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Trump suddenly announced that it will give up Taiwan, China will invade immediately.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
Yes
79%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Even though NV's market is growing, it may not beat the market expectation because the growth curve of AI is slowing down. The small-scale AI, which may not fully rely on NV, is thriving. After all, NV still rely on other real products to be more valuable.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NVidia is working on the robot, but we are uncertain how likely the ordinary people will accept it. If yes, NVidia may find another way to boost its profit.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Kuwait
0%
Oman
0%
Qatar
0%
Saudi Arabia
0%
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
Given Israel's current advance in Syria, it is unlikely that any of these countries will acknowledge Israel next week.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is very unlikely, but if Iran suddenly starts to balance between US and Russia, acknowledging Israel can be a possible move
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 21, 2025 09:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
84%
Yes
Dec 21, 2024 to Jun 21, 2025
16%
No
Dec 21, 2024 to Jun 21, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Given the ending of the Ukraine Crisis, North Korea will receive the new technology from Russia. North Korea will probably exploit some national days to try the new technologies. It is even more likely because of US-China ongoing conflict. The rationale of North Korea is to be unpredictable, so it will try to do something for the new Xi-Trump era. The economy is also not good in China and RUssia, so North Korea would use the nuclear weapon as a way to draw attention in exchange for food and subsidy.
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Why might you be wrong?
If Trump/Musk suddenly decided to make friends with China and RUsia which helps their economy, then North Korea will have less incentive to be the trouble maker for the next six months.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It's winter and is close to the new year. Both sides are waiting for Trump to negotiate. No much development will be done before that.
Why might you be wrong?
If Trump and Putin conflicts, it could be possible.