Forecasted Questions
Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 05:43AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 31, 2025 05:43AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 47% | -12% | +4% |
| No | 65% | 53% | +12% | -4% |
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2025 03:23AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 31, 2025 03:23AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 5% | 0% | +5% | -2% |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 15% | 1% | +14% | -5% |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 40% | 6% | +34% | -4% |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 25% | 50% | -25% | +7% |
| €30 billion or more | 15% | 42% | -27% | +5% |
Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2025 11:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 30, 2025 11:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 21% | +59% | -5% |
| No | 20% | 79% | -59% | +5% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 08:09PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 31, 2025 08:09PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027 | Jan 31, 2026 | 5% | +23% | +2% |
| No | 72% | Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027 | Jan 31, 2026 | 95% | -23% | -2% |