The public is angry but there is little evidence the administration's control over the levers of power have weakened.
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Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 27, 2025 06:23PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
Yes
Jan 27, 2025 to Jan 27, 2026
5%
No
Jan 27, 2025 to Jan 27, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Because of repressed public speech, the anger of Iranian citizens and military officers could be more than is knowable at a distance.
Files
Thank you! You are correct. I'll change it later.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(+15%)
Chemical
5%
(0%)
Biological
5%
(0%)
Radiological
10%
(0%)
Nuclear
Why do you think you're right?
Chemical weapons on a battlefield might turn the tide for a weaker force against a stronger one.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Even weak nations wouldn't want the massive retaliation possible if chemical weapons were used on a battlefield, especially one in another country.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
With tech innovators like Elon Musk in the government now, the excitement for augmentation could become overwhelming. Experience from implants for people with conditions could be so successful that the use in able-bodied humans could be studied.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there are bad outcomes in the implants for non-able bodied people, the FDA would not authorize implants for the able bodied.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Chemical
5%
Biological
5%
Radiological
10%
Nuclear
Why do you think you're right?
The nation state actors will not use WMD in the next five years. The cost is too high.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The reason I might be wrong is that Russia could use limited tactical nukes to win in Ukraine.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The administration has taken such a hard stance on anti AI regulation.
Why might you be wrong?
The administration would set in place regulations beneficial to the US to get ahead of China