aitana-higuera

Aitana Higuera
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New Prediction
aitana-higuera
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Probability
Answer
20%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
20%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
20%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
20%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
20%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Russia and Ukraine are already engaged in serious negotiations and have publicly supported the idea of a ceasefire. External pressure from the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and others is strong, pushing both sides for an agreement. Militarily, both countries are exhausted.

All these factors together make a 2025 ceasefire very likely.

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Why might you be wrong?

Both sides have shown support for a ceasefire but outstanding issues still exist, and negotiations could easily collapse, like they have in the past. Russia might demand conditions Ukraine can't accept, especially on territory, and Ukraine might refuse to agree if it feels the ceasefire would legitimize Russian occupation.  Finally, even if leaders agree, trust is very low,  which would mean no resolution before the end of 2025.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

U.S. officials have played a central role in establishing dialogue between Ukraine and Russia.. The current effort demonstrates a unified approach to peace mediation which might establish the foundation for a comprehensive ceasefire agreement.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shows readiness to enter peace negotiations while insisting on a durable peace solution which Russia would not be able to disrupt. The willingness to discuss peace terms shows Ukraine's readiness to enter negotiations towards a ceasefire agreement.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer alongside European leaders demanded strict deadlines and ongoing sanctions to push Russia into peace talks. The international community's demands may push Russia towards a ceasefire to relieve its economic and diplomatic pressures.

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Why might you be wrong?

A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October 1, 2025, is unlikely because Russia has no reason to stop its military objectives unless it secures occupied territories. Previous ceasefires have failed due to ongoing attacks and mistrust between the parties. Unresolved issues like Russia's economic recovery and Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO additionally reduce the pressure for a truce.

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aitana-higuera
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This forecast expired on Mar 28, 2025 05:12AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
35%
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

I believe this event is likely to happen because of North Korea's historical patterns, recent intelligence, and geopolitical factors. In the past, North Korea has used nuclear tests to demonstrate strength and gain leverage in negotiations, particularly when tensions with the U.S. and South Korea are high. Additionally, with global attention focused on the war in Ukraine, U.S. and China's commercial tensions, North Korea may see this as an opportunity to act with fewer immediate consequences. Given these factors, a nuclear test in the upcoming future appears likely.

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Why might you be wrong?

The factors I consider that this event is unlikely to happen is due to the pressure from its allies, lack of clear evidence, and internal challenges. China, North Korea’s main supporter, wants stability in the region and would likely discourage a test to avoid more sanctions. So far, there have been no confirmed signs of nuclear test preparations at known sites. North Korea is internally struggling and focusing on nuclear tests could make things worse for the government. 

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Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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aitana-higuera
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Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

when would putin´s ambition stop?

  • Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all part of NATO, if Russia attacks them, it would have to fight  the entire alliance. 
  • Russia is still fighting Ukraine and has lost a lot of soldiers, weapons, and money.
  • Russia is already sanctioned because of the war in Ukraine, and attacking NATO countries would bring even worse economic punishment.


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Why might you be wrong?
  • if Ukraine surrenders or is forced into a settlement that favors Russia, Putin might feel emboldened to expand his influence further, because his vision aligns more with imperial Russia.
  • If things go badly for Putin, such as economic collapse, protests, or political challenges, he might start a new military conflict to distract the population.
  • If the U.S. or other key NATO countries show signs of not wanting to defend the Baltics, Russia might take advantage of that uncertainty.
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