Confirmed previous forecast
0.167815
Relative Brier Score
14
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 28, 2025 04:23PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2025 to Apr 28, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 28, 2025 to Apr 28, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2025 12:42AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2025 to Mar 26, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 26, 2025 to Mar 26, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Argentina
9%
(0%)
Bolivia
5%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 18, 2025 08:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 18, 2025 to Feb 18, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 18, 2025 to Feb 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Argentina
9%
(0%)
Bolivia
5%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files