Forecasted Questions
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 12:56AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 24, 2025 12:56AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | -3% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | +3% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 01:23AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 24, 2025 01:23AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 20% | 3% | +17% | -1% |
| Latvia | 20% | 2% | +18% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 20% | 2% | +18% | -1% |
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 01:38AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 24, 2025 01:38AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 7% | +28% | +0% |
| No | 65% | 93% | -28% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2025 11:28AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 29, 2025 11:28AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 5% | 3% | +2% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2025 11:37AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 29, 2025 11:37AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 16% | +4% | -8% |
| No | 80% | 84% | -4% | +8% |