tumbleweed36

Very unlikely before the end of the conflict between Israel and Hamas and a resolution of Gaza situation, which is likely to take more than 6 months. Any Muslim-majority country that attempts at such a thing will be ostracized by the community.

In a slightly unexpcted way, with its bunker-buster strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump has reassured the credibility of U.S. alliance with countries like Isreal and South Korea who face nuclear threats. North Korea is unlikely to risk such a thing.

China won't make its move on Taiwan unless it has confidence that U.S. won't interfere. Current trade negotiations with Trump is among the efforts to move things in China's favor. China is also making preparations such as hiring Russian military to train its airborne troops and stocking up on maritime miliita fleets, all of which will take more than 6 months.

Djibouti was a signaling effort, a show of force and intent. Further inticing Western hostility will be counterproductive. If China wishes to expand local military presence and along with it the infrastructure capacity to support it, further construction will be in the form of dual-use facilities, such as commercial ports that can support naval activities with minimum add-ons or modifications, to draw less attention and provide deniability.

Russia has insufficient military capacity to invade Moldova due to attrition from the war with Ukraine. Opening up a second front in another direction such as Georgia or Armenia would also be unwise. Invading Kazakhstan will push the country towards U.S. or China and it may destablize Sino-russian relationship since Kazakhstan is on the border of China.

Russia's typical tactic to achieve reflexive control is vague indication of escalation and verbal threats backed by limited incursions or provocations, which will lead to self-intimidation by its victims. Russia is unlikely to overdo this tactic by causing any significan loss of assets or human lives, which will be considered a de facto escalation instead of a threat to escalate.

Ukraine's morale and confidence are high as they receive continued support from Europe and the U.S. Trump recently expressed positive attitude on Truth Social toward Ukraine reclaiming ALL of its territories. The U.S. has also begun to relax the constraint on Ukraine striking targets within Russian borders with U.S. weapons. Russia's war machine is grinding at a high human cost and cost to its civilian economy. In the face of these positive prospects, Ukraine is unlikely to concede prematurely to signing any peace agreement.