Confirmed previous forecast
0.392458
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
That would be a huge jump to make within a relatively small timeframe without there being a significant impetus
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Big pricing change (supply chain changes), new models being released
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As of the latest polls, Mamdani is leading by a slight margin, though that polling may have favored younger voters being mostly (61%) over text. In NYC, younger voters may be more involved than in other municipalities, but in general, their turnout is still lower than the older population.
With it being rank-choice, I doubt Cuomo will get the lead in the first round. So many people hate Cuomo as a person, though he seems more "stable" against Trump than a newbie.
However, people's reasons for not favoring Mamdani are that they don't know enough about him, and with how much work Mamdani is doing, he might be able to pull through, compared to Cuomo, who people don't favor because they know him.
I still feel that a preference for stability and risk aversion will win out, but in a very left city, there's a stronger chance than elsewhere to want someone a la AOC in the mayoral seat.
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Why might you be wrong?
Rank choice voting is newer, meaning I am less familiar with it, and voters are less familiar with it.
Liberal voters may be so starving for change in response to the demi-authoritarian flavor of Trump's policies, that they would swing far-left and push in Mamdani, and/or, people may hate Cuomo enough as a person to push him out, and similar to Andrew Yang's approach in the 2021 mayoral election, enough lower-polling candidates may tell their supporters to not rank Cuomo & to rank Mamdani second that he might push through.
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Tensions appear to be localized elsewhere currently; the agreement in 2024
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Rising global tension, trade wars, rare earth metal clashes
Files
