Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?

Started May 23, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC

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Seasons

2025 Season

In the first quarter of 2025, new battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations in the EU grew by 23.9%, to 412,997 units, capturing 15.2% of total EU market share as compared to 12% in Q1 in 2024 (ACEA). European buyers have been heavily influenced by general global economic uncertainty, growing competition from China, and Elon Musk’s political activity, which has impacted the sales of Tesla vehicles (Reuters, Statista). In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla sales dropped by approximately 62% in Germany, and other EU countries have shown similar trends (Statista).

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve based on information from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), which reports on registrations of various types of vehicles in the EU in monthly press releases. The question will resolve based on the number of new battery-electric vehicles registered in the EU in Q2 2025, which ends on 30 June 2025, and will resolve "Yes" if the year-to-date percentage of BEV registrations (i.e., registrations since January) exceeds 20% in any monthly report from April to June 2025. The most recent “New car registrations” press release (for Q1 2025) is available here.

Question clarification

Issued on 06/17/25 01:57pm
The question resolves "Yes" when any ACEA monthly report for April, May, or June 2025 shows that the year-to-date share of battery-electric vehicles among new car registrations in the EU exceeds 20%. This refers to the cumulative percentage from January 2025 through the reported month. Note that reports are released monthly, not quarterly as previously stated. The resolution criteria has been updated to reflect this.