Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000262
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on May 2, 2025 02:06AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 2, 2025 to Oct 2, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 2, 2025 to Oct 2, 2025
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-5%)
Yes
70%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Apple's market capitalization remains higher than NVIDIA's, suggesting that NVIDIA would need significant growth to surpass Apple within the next two months.Both companies have experienced market fluctuations due to factors such as U.S. tariffs. Notably, NVIDIA's market capitalization decreased by 19.59% in the first quarter of 2025.
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Why might you be wrong?
If NVIDIA experiences a surge in demand for its AI and data center products, leading to better-than-expected financial performance, its stock price and market capitalization could rise.Conversely, if Apple faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, decreased product demand, or other operational issues, its market capitalization could be negatively impacted.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As of April 1st 2025, Apple remains the most valuable company at $3.68 trillion, slightly ahead of Nvidia's $3.54 trillion. Nvidia would need a sustained rally to overtake Apple.Nvidia's stock has experienced a 19.59% decline in early 2025 due to U.S. tariff policies, making its short-term outlook unstable.
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Why might you be wrong?
If Apple experiences a decline in iPhone sales, weak earnings, or regulatory challenges, its market cap could fall below Nvidia’s. If AI demand accelerates significantly, Nvidia’s revenue and stock price could surge past Apple’s.
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New Badge
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 2, 2025 01:34AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Apr 2, 2025 to Oct 2, 2025
99%
No
Apr 2, 2025 to Oct 2, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
China has stated multiple times that they will never use force to conquer Taiwan unless independence has been declared.
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Why might you be wrong?
I think USA under the leadership of Trump might do something erratic or irrational that forces China to take forceful action.
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