China is engaged in military pressure tactics and political sabotage in Taiwan. They will not need to attack but are playing a longer term political gain.
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This forecast expired on May 3, 2025 06:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 3, 2025 to Oct 3, 2025
95%
No
Apr 3, 2025 to Oct 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
China may see Trump and the US military are being reoriented and neutered. They may take the opportunity to perform an overwhelming invasion and take control.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
1. Apple & Microsoft are market cap # 1-2 leaders and well ahead on Nvidea and more likely to be less volume than Nvidea in the Trump tariff chaos. 2. AI reliance on Nvidea is lessening. 3. AI is speculative.
Why might you be wrong?
In the age of Trump tariffs weird things may occur.