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2
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1
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New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
A lot has to go wrong for another Covid event to take place. Since Covid there should be renewed focus on reducing the chance of an outbreak. And it doesn't make sense for a rogue state to do this on purpose.
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Why might you be wrong?
There are two reasons it could happen. Once again a failure to contain within a lab. Second is a death cult that wants mass deaths, including themselves. I think the latter is a real concern because the tools and techniques are more widely available. But these tend to poorly organized and cops usually catch them.
Files
Very long time period, so hard and the Magic 8 Ball (tm) says "future is cloudy."
Files
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