base rate of 2-4% x election results(3x) = 8-12%. General atmosphere around AI and Trump improving relations with Russia makes me lean toward upper part of the range.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 4, 2025 02:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
88%
No
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Trump signals strong enough unwillingness to support allies that CCP capitalizes on its opening.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I asked ChatGPT and it said 25%. Then I asked chat gpt to give me a list of relevant factors. Then I asked it to find that info. Then I asked it if there are any other factors that influence it. Then I repeated this process several times. Then I had it express it all as a series of Bayesian conditionalizations. Each step looked about right and 5% feels right to me.
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Why might you be wrong?
If the U.S. decides to stop controlling compute this could dramatically shake up the market.
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Why do you think you're right?
I asked chatgpt to give me a base probability. It gave me like 20%. I then had it give me a list of relevant factors and then do a search and give weights and probabilities to these factors. I repeated this process a few times and came up with 5%. This feels about right so I went with it.
Why might you be wrong?
So many possibilities from advances in technology, subsidies, geopolitical forces, to factors I didn't even know existed.