Cat-D

Cat D
About:

I like patting baby alpacas, licking cream cheese frosting off cupcakes and then putting them back in cupboard, and smelling freshly cut grass.

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2020 Season Stats

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Relative Brier Score

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Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 10 10 10
Comments 0 0 10 10 10
Questions Forecasted 0 0 8 8 8
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Badge
Cat-D earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Aug 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Cat-D made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (-9%)
Estonia
0% (-10%)
Latvia
0% (-10%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

Doesn't have troops

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Shit happens 

Files
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Cat-D made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Nov 12, 2025 03:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
69% (+9%)
Yes
Aug 12, 2025 to Feb 12, 2027
31% (-9%)
No
Aug 12, 2025 to Feb 12, 2027
Why do you think you're right?

Heathrow

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Nothing since Heathrow. Plus trump talks 

Files
New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Cat-D made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
39%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
33%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
28%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Upcoming trump.v Putin meeting. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Putin wants a war of attrition

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Nvidia development and kickbacks. Trump like to see this as lucrative stream.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

May not want to impede kickbacks already getting from Nvidia deal.

Files
New Badge
Cat-D earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Trump doesn't care. Hell do a deal with tech to not regulate in exchange for cash.

Files
Why might you be wrong?
He might not get the deal he wants.
Files
New Badge
Cat-D earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Apr 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Cat-D made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
9%
Estonia
10%
Latvia
10%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

Nato

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If Ukraine joins NATO. Seems unlikely. 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Not gonna happen unless he gets assassinated. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

See above. 

Files
Files
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