Despite Mamdani getting some momentum from AOC's endorsement, Cuomo maintains a solid double digit lead even in the final round of voting. Bloomberg's endorsement might go a long way to people sitting on the fence and prioritizing Cuomo higher.
0.606426
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With political unrest starting to show in major cities, a wayward comment or heavy handed reponse could tip voters toward a more liberal approach.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Putting a placeholder forecast in here, and I think it's really a 50/50 because there's so much uncertainty, but I don't see how the US would achieve its goals with Iran without some sort of negotiation. Israel seems to be pushing the timeline, and Trump is not necessarily going to go along with it:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/world/middleeast/trump-iran-two-weeks.html
There are so many strategic considerations here beyond just the Iran situation that I think it will give the US leadership pause.
Why might you be wrong?
The intelligence seems to be still evolving. If Iran races towards developing a bomb in the next few weeks, that could significantly alter the strategic considerations.