Elevated from negligible to tail risk, because of trade war and accelerated action to avoid US control of TSMC.
0.004574
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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This forecast expired on May 4, 2025 06:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
95%
No
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Seismic, uncharted territory in terms of geopolitical risk, at moment, largely die to US actions not Chinese.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There is an AI arms race between the US and China and a perception that whoever reaches AGI first will accelerate so that it will be impossible to catch up. Despite the risks of AI, winning this race will dictate policy. The situation is the same as for nuclear weapons during the cold war.
Widespread skepticism of rushed EU regulation adds to how unlikely US regulation will follow.
Why might you be wrong?