China is probably waiting for the right moment to do it. If they really are behind US on tech, they'll wait for the next jump: quantum + AI
0.00459
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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This forecast expired on May 7, 2025 08:23AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
95%
No
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My underestimation of geopolitical factors, AI arms race status and Trump politics implications
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Quantum starts growing as QBTS reports significant increase in revenue from sales of Advanced2 quantum chips.
Why might you be wrong?
Trump's tariffs policy causes unexpected pumps