Forecasted Questions
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 27, 2025 09:23AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 27, 2025 09:23AM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 7% | +73% | +0% |
| No | 20% | 93% | -73% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 27, 2025 09:23AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 27, 2025 09:23AM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 46% | 68% | -22% | +5% |
| 30 days | 20% | 6% | +14% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 15% | 6% | +9% | -2% |
| 61-90 days | 10% | 5% | +5% | -1% |
| 91 days or more | 9% | 16% | -7% | +1% |