Iran's economy is weakened. It has lost effective proxy forces in Syria and those in Yemen and Lebanon are weakened. It is also wary of provoking the current US administration.
-0.090734
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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This forecast expired on Jul 5, 2025 05:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
22%
Yes
Apr 5, 2025 to Apr 5, 2026
78%
No
Apr 5, 2025 to Apr 5, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Iran miscalculates their ability to conduct kinetic operations (covert or overt) in another country without provoking third party interference and escalation.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
China believes they can continue their civil-military expansion in much of the world without pushback from the US or EU, particularly with the current US administration and the EU's focus on bolstering their own territorial defenses.
Why might you be wrong?
A series of unrelated but provocative steps by China might elicit a strong counter-response by the US.