Confirmed previous forecast
0.007625
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jun 9, 2025 05:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 9, 2025 to Nov 9, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
May 9, 2025 to Nov 9, 2025
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New Badge
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 6, 2025 07:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 6, 2025 to Oct 6, 2025
95%
No
Apr 6, 2025 to Oct 6, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
This would be the start of WW3 and I think China want to avoid that at all costs.
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Why might you be wrong?
China may decide that it is worth it to capture the chip making facilities in order to slow down stop the US from progressing in AI research.
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