Parth-Sangani

Parth Sangani
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Parth-Sangani
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 7, 2025 04:41AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
95%
No
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Primary risk of disruption to chip manufacturing and supply chain which affect everything. 
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Why might you be wrong?

Incorrect assumption that PRC would want to avoid disruption of technological advancement

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

1. It has dropped to the second /third position by market cap owing to a slowdown in the data-center investment growth trends causing a ripple effect. Future scenarios got priced in starting January

2. Compute costs are coming down - decrease demand for chips. Countered via Jevons paradox. Hard to quantify and most estimates have a large MoE. Simplest to consider that they cancel out. 

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Why might you be wrong?

1. Compute intensive applications gain traction in the next two months significantly upscaling AI adoption

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