Confirmed previous forecast
0.022521
Relative Brier Score
15
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Not at all on the current admin radar
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Something happens to call attention to this
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(-4%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
1%
(-11%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
9%
(-14%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
90%
(+29%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Time has passed and it did not materialize in the period I had numbers.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Russia changes command
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
10%
(0%)
30 days
10%
(0%)
31-60 days
10%
(0%)
61-90 days
9%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-14%)
Yes
99%
(+14%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Data has been better than expected.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Political crisis.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
4%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
12%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
23%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
61%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files