Forecasted Questions
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2025 07:37PM UTC
(9 months ago)
May 02, 2025 07:37PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 7% | +43% | -2% |
| No | 50% | 93% | -43% | +2% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2025 07:44PM UTC
(9 months ago)
May 02, 2025 07:44PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | 16% | +49% | -18% |
| No | 35% | 84% | -49% | +18% |