Joseph-Payton

Joseph Payton
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New Prediction
Joseph-Payton
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 16, 2025 10:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Apr 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2025
94%
No
Apr 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

I give this a very low probability of occuring due to the current geopolitical situation. Despite US moves to isolate trade, this doesnt absolve China of its accountability to the rest of the international community, as making such a move could have long term consequences for China's international ties.

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Why might you be wrong?

If the current trade war between the US and China heighten tensions, this will improve the chance that China would make an aggressive move of this nature.

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