kalo

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My First Question

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New Prediction
kalo
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 17, 2025 08:19PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Apr 17, 2025 to Oct 17, 2025
90%
No
Apr 17, 2025 to Oct 17, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

The political and economic costs are too high all the time China is trying to find a new fundament in a new emerging world order. 

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Why might you be wrong?

China perceives USAs willingness and focus on Taiwan as lukewarm and hence a military action would be "easy". Secondly that China feels the emergency of having access to Taiwan made semiconductors. 

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