0.081293
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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Why do you think you're right?
I think the decision is highly contingent on how destabilized the global economy is, the extent to which the current administration's institutes a tariff regime, and other countries' responses.
Why might you be wrong?
I expect may assigned probability to "yes" is higher than the average person's--simply because a direct invasion or attack would be unprecedented in recent history, apart from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I think any attack by China would not be a direct power grab; it would need an opportunistic rationale.