Forecasted Questions
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2025 11:53PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Oct 30, 2025 11:53PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 5% | +15% | -9% |
| No | 80% | 95% | -15% | +9% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2025 06:28PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Nov 04, 2025 06:28PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 16% | -6% | -3% |
| No | 90% | 84% | +6% | +3% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2025 09:38PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Nov 04, 2025 09:38PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 18 | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
| 17 | 5% | 0% | +5% | -2% |
| 16 or fewer | 94% | 100% | -6% | +2% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 26, 2025 09:59PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Dec 26, 2025 09:59PM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |