This is likely.
2.380604
Relative Brier Score
29
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 30 | 29 | 30 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know anything about this.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
"Any country" greatly increases the probability.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know much about the topic.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
AI has become increasing prevalent.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know much about this topic.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
98%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This seems highly unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't really know what this is.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
AI continues to increase in its power, and some form of control is needed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know much about this topic.
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
This change is unlikely.
Why might you be wrong?
I don’t know much about the topic.