bjackson

Current forecasts show the one current hurricane tracking out to sea, and the only other forecast disturbance has a low prediction of becoming a cyclone before the end of this question's forecast period.  Endgame.

The latest data update released from the CDC lists 37 additional cases over the last seven days, up to 1491.  That is only a little more than 5 per day, but with essentially two weeks left before this question resolves, the likelihood that the total will not be greater than 1500 (only an additional two days worth of cases at this rate) seems negligible.  That said, it now seems like a major acceleration due to school starting is not being observed in reported numbers, so the potential for there to be enough cases (more than 150) in the next two weeks to break through into the 1650+ category now seems extremely unlikely.

With time running out in the period before this question is resolved, the opportunity for a conflict at the scale foreseen in the question is going down.

With the time for resolution of this question approaching, the likelihood of an incident is going down considerably.  There haven't been any indications of escalating conflict in the area that I am aware of.

With the end date of the time period approaching, the probability of getting more than one hurricane that meets the requirements seems very low.  There is one area currently forecast with a high chance of producing a storm in the next 7 days, but that level of activity seems very inconsistent with getting two storms.