Russia currently has no short-term incentive to end the conflict. Also, the Trump Administration has seemingly off-ramped its involvement.
0.013329
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
15%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
85%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With the expiration of New START, if the Kremlin can secure a bilateral agreement that includes constraints on U.S. nuclear weapons programs, a deal may be possible. But this seems very unlikely at this point.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
At this point, there is very little room for changes in numbers.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
CDC could revise numbers for political purposes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The European Commission’s quarterly energy/gas market reports note that Russian gas imports have declined in 2025, and that in one quarter (unspecified), total Russian gas imports fell “27 % quarter-on-quarter.”This same report also stated that total Russian gas imports to the EU dropped from ~150 billion cu meters in 2021 to ~52 billion cu meters in 2024. So far in 2025, quarterly imports have been below 15b cu mtrs. Revised estimates could show even lower import numbers, especially if the EU is keen to demonstrate reduced dependence on Russia to the U.S..
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The cold season is coming, and 4th quarter imports could be far higher. Also, if a peace deal is made in the next 30 days or so, increased import of Russian gas could be part of the comprehensive deal. This is unlikely though.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Estonia
5%
Latvia
5%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
An attack on Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania would likely trigger Art 5, which would risk a full-scale war w/ NATO, making an invasion strategically self-destructive. Recent drone violation of Polish and Romanian airspace have already shown NATO's sensitivity to any incursion of their sovereignty.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russian GRU could manufacture "false flag" events that lead to actions below the threshold of war, having the effects of a military invasion with no actual uniformed troops taking part.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
Why do you think you're right?
EU is already financing Ukrainian munitions including rockets signals sustained European commitment through 2025.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
HIMARS have historically required active U.S. intelligence sharing with UAF. If there is a chance that this intelligence could get cut off again, the EU may need to consider other options for UKR.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-15%)
Yes
100%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
N/A
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There is no appetite for regulating AI within the current Administration. Perhaps after 2026.
Why might you be wrong?