Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 03:13AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 03:13AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 9% | 6% | +3% | -1% |
| Armenia | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 11% | 3% | +8% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 03:24AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 03:24AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 19% | +76% | -24% |
| No | 5% | 81% | -76% | +24% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 03:32AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 03:32AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 03:46AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 03:46AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 1% | +11% | +0% |
| No | 88% | 99% | -11% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 03:55AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 03:55AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 15% | 2% | +13% | -3% |
| Not before 2026 | 85% | 98% | -13% | +3% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 03:59AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 03:59AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |