Updating forecast to reflect 9/17 data. There are 1,491 cases reported as of 9/17, with the reporting lag for the 914/-9/20 week alone, there should be more than 1,500 cases. Alternatively, there will not be more than 158 cases reported by the Oct 1 update.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(-30%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
(+30%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there was truly only 1 case detected in the 9/14-9/20 period and no additional cases reported by Oct 1, then I am over-predicting, but I think that is almost statistically impossible given Aug/Sept transmission. If this happened, it would be significantly more likely that the CDC just fell down on the job and stopped collecting or reporting measles case data.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast in light of India and China's public commitment to resolving border disputes ahead of regional summit in late August (NPR).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A public commitment to resolving the border dispute does not mean that it will be resolved, though I think it continues steps India and China have already taken to reduce tensions, making it unlikely that a lethal confrontation occurs by Sept 30.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating forecast to reflect immigration raid on workers at a South Korean-backed electric vehicle battery in Georgia (NPR). I initially though that maybe this would inflame US-South Korean relations, but NPR reports that the US has made concessions to South Korea related to this: they aren't publicly treating the deported workers as criminals, which they have done on many other deportation flights, and they are not going to prevent the workers from re-entering the US with work visas/permits in the future. Given the ongoing ICE operations in the US, these seem like pretty big concessions in an attempt to hold onto foreign investment in US manufacturing. I think this makes it even less likely that the US makes any definitive statements about troop withdrawals, which South Korea very publicly does not want (Korean Times), in the next few weeks.
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Why might you be wrong?
South Korea is not happy about the immigration raid at the Georgia factory, and an opinion piece from MSNBC liked to a report from a Korean newspaper on halted plans for other South Korean-led investment projects in the US as a result. Trump could use/threaten to use announcements of troop withdraw from South Korea (which, again, South Korea does not want) as a bargaining chip in larger negotiations of continued Korean investment in US manufacturing.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+10%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-10%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Updating to reflect lack of major hurricanes in early September. So far in the 2025 season only 1 storm, Hurricane Erin has developed into a major hurricane but did not make US landfall (NOAA). AccuWeather has given several reasons for the quiet season so far and lack of named storms at the season's peak (Yahoo). The National Hurricane Center is tracking a developing tropical storm (92L) in the Atlantic (NOAA), but it would still take time to develop into a major hurricane and reach the US.
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Why might you be wrong?
Given the "lead" time for tropical depressions developing into major hurricanes (and then making US mainland landfall), I think 1 storm -- at most -- might reach the US by Sept 30. The second half of the season could produce additional major hurricanes, but it would be past the time horizon of this question.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why might you be wrong?
The Diplomat seems to think that handshake-gate is indicative of deepening politicization of any interaction between India and Pakistan (The Diplomat), which will make it difficult to solve the more intractable border and water disputes. Nothing has been solved since the May 2025 conflict, and the lack of dialog between the two nations could result in any incident perceived as being an escalation by the other as the impetus for another attack.
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Why do you think you're right?
In Q3, EU imported 8,167 mcu. To reach or exceed 19,000 mcu, the EU would need to import 10,833 mcu. No 2025 quarter to date has exceeded 10,024 mcu. In 2024, there was a 5% increase in Russia natural gas imports from Q3 to Q4, but this would not be a sufficient increase to reach 10,832 mcu. Oct 2025 data suggests approximately 3,262 mcu Russian imported natural gas. Nov and Dec 2025 imports would need to increase by roughly 16% to reach 10,833 mcu total by the end of Q4.
Recent EU sanctions (Guardian) also do not suggest that there will be increasing volume of imported natural gas from Russia in the recent future.
Why might you be wrong?
The source composition changed slightly in Q3 (Russian LNG vs Turkstream). If Turkstream continues the Q3 volume, and Russian LNG was to return to Q2 volume, imports would start to approach 10,300 and I may have underestimated the 'Yes' probability.